Bearish harami pattern: does a fall follow?
A bearish harami is a small candle whose body sits inside the body of a big green candle before it, after a rise. Buyers who were in full control one day could not follow through the next.
When “Bearish harami” appeared, NIFTY 200 stocks were lower 12 trading days later 48.8% of the time, against 44.7% after any day: a small edge.
| After | Higher | Average move | Median move | Higher after any day |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 trading days | 48.6% | 0.0% | -0.1% | 53.9% |
| 12 trading days | 51.2% | +0.6% | +0.2% | 55.3% |
| 20 trading days | 54.4% | +1.6% | +0.8% | 56.8% |
Year by year
| Year | Signals | Higher after 12 days | Any day |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 56 | 51.8% | 54.4% |
| 2022 | 138 | 50.0% | 52.1% |
| 2023 | 124 | 55.6% | 61.3% |
| 2024 | 126 | 44.4% | 53.7% |
| 2025 | 56 | 58.9% | 53.1% |
| Large cap only | 281 | 50.9% | |
| Mid cap only | 219 | 51.6% |
What it is
A bearish harami is a small candle whose body sits inside the body of a big green candle before it, after a rise. Buyers who were in full control one day could not follow through the next.
How we detected it
A big green candle (body at least 60% of its range, range at least 1.1 times the average daily range of the 14 sessions ending three days earlier) is followed by a candle of either colour whose body sits inside the green body and is at most half its size. Before the green candle, the close rose more than 2.5% over the 8 days before it. We count the second day.
How traders read it
It signals hesitation, not a top. Traders wait for price to close below the big green candle’s open before treating the rise as over.
A signal is a probability, not a promise
Even the most reliable signal in this study was followed by the opposite move 37% of the time. A signal tilts the odds; it doesn’t decide the outcome.
Signals work better when they agree with the trend and with each other. Whatever the signal, decide your stop-loss before you act.
Practise spotting it, free
The Harami chapter teaches this signal in five minutes, then you call real NSE charts and get graded on your reasoning.
Common questions
Does the bearish harami signal work on Indian stocks?
When “Bearish harami” appeared, NIFTY 200 stocks were lower 12 trading days later 48.8% of the time, against 44.7% after any day: a small edge. No single signal is reliable on its own; traders combine it with the trend and manage risk with a stop-loss.
How often did stocks rise after this signal?
Across 500 signals on 161 NIFTY 200 stocks (2021–2025), the price was higher after 5, 12 and 20 trading days 48.6%, 51.2%, 54.4% of the time. After any day it was 53.9%, 55.3%, 56.8%.
How is “Bearish harami” defined here?
A big green candle (body at least 60% of its range, range at least 1.1 times the average daily range of the 14 sessions ending three days earlier) is followed by a candle of either colour whose body sits inside the green body and is at most half its size. Before the green candle, the close rose more than 2.5% over the 8 days before it. We count the second day.
How these numbers were made
We ran the same signal detector MarketSeekho uses to grade players over every trading day of 187 NIFTY 200 stocks, Jan 2021 to Oct 2025, using NSE end-of-day prices (1,54,833 stock-days). We counted the first day a signal appeared, then ignored the same signal on the same stock for 12 trading days so results don’t overlap. Windows with splits, bonuses or trading halts were left out.
“Any day” is the baseline: the same measure after every day in the data, signal or not. It matters because 2021–2025 was mostly a rising market, so stocks were higher after 12 days more often than not anyway. Past results don’t predict future ones, and this is not investment advice.