Evening star pattern: does it mark a top?
An evening star is three candles after a rise: a big green candle, a small candle that shows buying stalling, then a red candle that closes well into the first one. Buyers ran out of steam and sellers took over.
When “Evening star” appeared, NIFTY 200 stocks were lower 12 trading days later 45.3% of the time, against 44.7% after any day: about the same as picking a random day.
| After | Higher | Average move | Median move | Higher after any day |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 trading days | 53.1% | +0.1% | +0.2% | 53.9% |
| 12 trading days | 54.7% | +1.2% | +0.7% | 55.3% |
| 20 trading days | 60.7% | +2.3% | +1.5% | 56.8% |
Year by year
| Year | Signals | Higher after 12 days | Any day |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 50 | 50.0% | 54.4% |
| 2022 | 104 | 51.0% | 52.1% |
| 2023 | 97 | 59.8% | 61.3% |
| 2024 | 74 | 50.0% | 53.7% |
| 2025 | 44 | 65.9% | 53.1% |
| Large cap only | 191 | 57.1% | |
| Mid cap only | 178 | 52.2% |
What it is
An evening star is three candles after a rise: a big green candle, a small candle that shows buying stalling, then a red candle that closes well into the first one. Buyers ran out of steam and sellers took over.
How we detected it
The first candle is green with a body at least 60% of its range and a range at least the average daily range of the 14 sessions ending three days earlier. The second has a body no more than 35% of the first body. The third is red and closes below the middle of the first body. Before the first candle, the close rose more than 2.5% over the 8 days before it. No gap is required. We count the third day.
How traders read it
It shows a top forming over three days. Traders take it more seriously near resistance, and wait for price to stay below the small middle candle.
A signal is a probability, not a promise
Even the most reliable signal in this study was followed by the opposite move 37% of the time. A signal tilts the odds; it doesn’t decide the outcome.
Signals work better when they agree with the trend and with each other. Whatever the signal, decide your stop-loss before you act.
Practise spotting it, free
The Morning and evening star chapter teaches this signal in five minutes, then you call real NSE charts and get graded on your reasoning.
Common questions
Does the evening star signal work on Indian stocks?
When “Evening star” appeared, NIFTY 200 stocks were lower 12 trading days later 45.3% of the time, against 44.7% after any day: about the same as picking a random day. No single signal is reliable on its own; traders combine it with the trend and manage risk with a stop-loss.
How often did stocks rise after this signal?
Across 369 signals on 153 NIFTY 200 stocks (2021–2025), the price was higher after 5, 12 and 20 trading days 53.1%, 54.7%, 60.7% of the time. After any day it was 53.9%, 55.3%, 56.8%.
How is “Evening star” defined here?
The first candle is green with a body at least 60% of its range and a range at least the average daily range of the 14 sessions ending three days earlier. The second has a body no more than 35% of the first body. The third is red and closes below the middle of the first body. Before the first candle, the close rose more than 2.5% over the 8 days before it. No gap is required. We count the third day.
How these numbers were made
We ran the same signal detector MarketSeekho uses to grade players over every trading day of 187 NIFTY 200 stocks, Jan 2021 to Oct 2025, using NSE end-of-day prices (1,54,833 stock-days). We counted the first day a signal appeared, then ignored the same signal on the same stock for 12 trading days so results don’t overlap. Windows with splits, bonuses or trading halts were left out.
“Any day” is the baseline: the same measure after every day in the data, signal or not. It matters because 2021–2025 was mostly a rising market, so stocks were higher after 12 days more often than not anyway. Past results don’t predict future ones, and this is not investment advice.