RSI below 30 (oversold): does it bounce?
RSI below 30 is called oversold. It means price has fallen fast. Many traders watch for a bounce from here.
When “RSI oversold (below 30)” appeared, NIFTY 200 stocks were higher 12 trading days later 63.1% of the time, against 55.3% after any day: 7.8 points more often than usual. The typical size of the move was 5.8%, against 5.4% normally.
| After | Higher | Average move | Median move | Higher after any day |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 trading days | 61.3% | +1.1% | +1.2% | 53.9% |
| 12 trading days | 63.1% | +2.1% | +2.0% | 55.3% |
| 20 trading days | 60.6% | +2.7% | +2.1% | 56.8% |
Year by year
| Year | Signals | Higher after 12 days | Any day |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 135 | 68.1% | 54.4% |
| 2022 | 340 | 61.5% | 52.1% |
| 2023 | 217 | 64.1% | 61.3% |
| 2024 | 224 | 56.7% | 53.7% |
| 2025 | 184 | 69.0% | 53.1% |
| Large cap only | 529 | 61.8% | |
| Mid cap only | 571 | 64.3% |
What it is
RSI below 30 is called oversold. It means price has fallen fast. Many traders watch for a bounce from here.
How we detected it
RSI (14) closes below 30, after not being below 30 the day before.
How traders read it
Oversold tells you selling has been heavy, not that it has finished. Falling knives can stay oversold. A bullish divergence or a reclaimed moving average adds confirmation.
A signal is a probability, not a promise
Even the most reliable signal in this study was followed by the opposite move 37% of the time. A signal tilts the odds; it doesn’t decide the outcome.
Signals work better when they agree with the trend and with each other. Whatever the signal, decide your stop-loss before you act.
Practise spotting it, free
The RSI chapter teaches this signal in five minutes, then you call real NSE charts and get graded on your reasoning.
Common questions
Does the RSI oversold (below 30) signal work on Indian stocks?
When “RSI oversold (below 30)” appeared, NIFTY 200 stocks were higher 12 trading days later 63.1% of the time, against 55.3% after any day: 7.8 points more often than usual. The typical size of the move was 5.8%, against 5.4% normally. No single signal is reliable on its own; traders combine it with the trend and manage risk with a stop-loss.
How often did stocks rise after this signal?
Across 1,100 signals on 176 NIFTY 200 stocks (2021–2025), the price was higher after 5, 12 and 20 trading days 61.3%, 63.1%, 60.6% of the time. After any day it was 53.9%, 55.3%, 56.8%.
How is “RSI oversold (below 30)” defined here?
RSI (14) closes below 30, after not being below 30 the day before.
How these numbers were made
We ran the same signal detector MarketSeekho uses to grade players over every trading day of 187 NIFTY 200 stocks, Jan 2021 to Oct 2025, using NSE end-of-day prices (1,54,833 stock-days). We counted the first day a signal appeared, then ignored the same signal on the same stock for 12 trading days so results don’t overlap. Windows with splits, bonuses or trading halts were left out.
“Any day” is the baseline: the same measure after every day in the data, signal or not. It matters because 2021–2025 was mostly a rising market, so stocks were higher after 12 days more often than not anyway. Past results don’t predict future ones, and this is not investment advice.