Selloff on high volume: does the fall go on?
This is a close at a fresh 20-day low on much bigger volume than usual. Many holders are selling at once, often after news or results.
When “New low on heavy volume” appeared, NIFTY 200 stocks were lower 12 trading days later 41.6% of the time, against 44.7% after any day: worse than a random day: the opposite happened more often than usual.
| After | Higher | Average move | Median move | Higher after any day |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 trading days | 55.8% | +0.7% | +0.5% | 53.9% |
| 12 trading days | 58.4% | +1.6% | +1.1% | 55.3% |
| 20 trading days | 56.8% | +2.1% | +1.5% | 56.8% |
Year by year
| Year | Signals | Higher after 12 days | Any day |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 172 | 58.7% | 54.4% |
| 2022 | 410 | 55.6% | 52.1% |
| 2023 | 369 | 60.4% | 61.3% |
| 2024 | 412 | 58.5% | 53.7% |
| 2025 | 249 | 59.4% | 53.1% |
| Large cap only | 833 | 59.7% | |
| Mid cap only | 779 | 57.0% |
What it is
This is a close at a fresh 20-day low on much bigger volume than usual. Many holders are selling at once, often after news or results.
How we detected it
The close is at or below the lowest close of the previous 20 days, and volume today or yesterday is at least 1.8 times the average volume of the 20 days ending three days earlier. We count the first day this is true.
How traders read it
Heavy selling can start a downtrend, or it can be a final flush that clears out sellers. Traders wait to see whether the next days make lower lows or stabilise.
A signal is a probability, not a promise
Even the most reliable signal in this study was followed by the opposite move 37% of the time. A signal tilts the odds; it doesn’t decide the outcome.
Signals work better when they agree with the trend and with each other. Whatever the signal, decide your stop-loss before you act.
Practise spotting it, free
The Volume chapter teaches this signal in five minutes, then you call real NSE charts and get graded on your reasoning.
Common questions
Does the new low on heavy volume signal work on Indian stocks?
When “New low on heavy volume” appeared, NIFTY 200 stocks were lower 12 trading days later 41.6% of the time, against 44.7% after any day: worse than a random day: the opposite happened more often than usual. No single signal is reliable on its own; traders combine it with the trend and manage risk with a stop-loss.
How often did stocks rise after this signal?
Across 1,612 signals on 179 NIFTY 200 stocks (2021–2025), the price was higher after 5, 12 and 20 trading days 55.8%, 58.4%, 56.8% of the time. After any day it was 53.9%, 55.3%, 56.8%.
How is “New low on heavy volume” defined here?
The close is at or below the lowest close of the previous 20 days, and volume today or yesterday is at least 1.8 times the average volume of the 20 days ending three days earlier. We count the first day this is true.
How these numbers were made
We ran the same signal detector MarketSeekho uses to grade players over every trading day of 187 NIFTY 200 stocks, Jan 2021 to Oct 2025, using NSE end-of-day prices (1,54,833 stock-days). We counted the first day a signal appeared, then ignored the same signal on the same stock for 12 trading days so results don’t overlap. Windows with splits, bonuses or trading halts were left out.
“Any day” is the baseline: the same measure after every day in the data, signal or not. It matters because 2021–2025 was mostly a rising market, so stocks were higher after 12 days more often than not anyway. Past results don’t predict future ones, and this is not investment advice.