MACD bearish crossover: what happens next?
A MACD bearish crossover is when the MACD line crosses below its signal line. It is read as momentum turning down.
When “MACD bearish crossover” appeared, NIFTY 200 stocks were lower 12 trading days later 42.7% of the time, against 44.7% after any day: worse than a random day: the opposite happened more often than usual.
| After | Higher | Average move | Median move | Higher after any day |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 trading days | 54.5% | +0.6% | +0.4% | 53.9% |
| 12 trading days | 57.3% | +1.5% | +1.1% | 55.3% |
| 20 trading days | 56.7% | +2.0% | +1.4% | 56.8% |
Year by year
| Year | Signals | Higher after 12 days | Any day |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 605 | 54.7% | 54.4% |
| 2022 | 1268 | 49.3% | 52.1% |
| 2023 | 1296 | 64.6% | 61.3% |
| 2024 | 1222 | 58.8% | 53.7% |
| 2025 | 717 | 58.3% | 53.1% |
| Large cap only | 2646 | 58.8% | |
| Mid cap only | 2462 | 55.8% |
What it is
A MACD bearish crossover is when the MACD line crosses below its signal line. It is read as momentum turning down.
How we detected it
The MACD line (12, 26) crosses below its 9-day signal line. We count the day of the cross.
How traders read it
In an uptrend, bearish crossovers often mark short pauses rather than tops. Check the bigger trend before acting on one.
A signal is a probability, not a promise
Even the most reliable signal in this study was followed by the opposite move 37% of the time. A signal tilts the odds; it doesn’t decide the outcome.
Signals work better when they agree with the trend and with each other. Whatever the signal, decide your stop-loss before you act.
Practise spotting it, free
The MACD chapter teaches this signal in five minutes, then you call real NSE charts and get graded on your reasoning.
Common questions
Does the MACD bearish crossover signal work on Indian stocks?
When “MACD bearish crossover” appeared, NIFTY 200 stocks were lower 12 trading days later 42.7% of the time, against 44.7% after any day: worse than a random day: the opposite happened more often than usual. No single signal is reliable on its own; traders combine it with the trend and manage risk with a stop-loss.
How often did stocks rise after this signal?
Across 5,108 signals on 185 NIFTY 200 stocks (2021–2025), the price was higher after 5, 12 and 20 trading days 54.5%, 57.3%, 56.7% of the time. After any day it was 53.9%, 55.3%, 56.8%.
How is “MACD bearish crossover” defined here?
The MACD line (12, 26) crosses below its 9-day signal line. We count the day of the cross.
How these numbers were made
We ran the same signal detector MarketSeekho uses to grade players over every trading day of 187 NIFTY 200 stocks, Jan 2021 to Oct 2025, using NSE end-of-day prices (1,54,833 stock-days). We counted the first day a signal appeared, then ignored the same signal on the same stock for 12 trading days so results don’t overlap. Windows with splits, bonuses or trading halts were left out.
“Any day” is the baseline: the same measure after every day in the data, signal or not. It matters because 2021–2025 was mostly a rising market, so stocks were higher after 12 days more often than not anyway. Past results don’t predict future ones, and this is not investment advice.