Bullish OBV divergence: quiet buying at the lows?
A bullish OBV divergence is when price makes a new low but OBV doesn’t. Selling volume is drying up, or buyers are quietly accumulating.
When “Bullish OBV divergence” appeared, NIFTY 200 stocks were higher 12 trading days later 58.1% of the time, against 55.3% after any day: a small edge.
| After | Higher | Average move | Median move | Higher after any day |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 trading days | 57.9% | +0.6% | +0.8% | 53.9% |
| 12 trading days | 58.1% | +1.5% | +1.2% | 55.3% |
| 20 trading days | 57.4% | +2.1% | +1.3% | 56.8% |
Year by year
| Year | Signals | Higher after 12 days | Any day |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 221 | 65.2% | 54.4% |
| 2022 | 380 | 56.6% | 52.1% |
| 2023 | 277 | 61.0% | 61.3% |
| 2024 | 289 | 54.0% | 53.7% |
| 2025 | 222 | 55.4% | 53.1% |
| Large cap only | 676 | 59.8% | |
| Mid cap only | 713 | 56.5% |
What it is
A bullish OBV divergence is when price makes a new low but OBV doesn’t. Selling volume is drying up, or buyers are quietly accumulating.
How we detected it
The close is within 0.5% of its 45-day low while OBV is more than 20% of its 45-day range above its own low.
How traders read it
It hints that the fall is losing support from volume. Traders look for price to turn up before acting.
A signal is a probability, not a promise
Even the most reliable signal in this study was followed by the opposite move 37% of the time. A signal tilts the odds; it doesn’t decide the outcome.
Signals work better when they agree with the trend and with each other. Whatever the signal, decide your stop-loss before you act.
Practise spotting it, free
The OBV chapter teaches this signal in five minutes, then you call real NSE charts and get graded on your reasoning.
Common questions
Does the bullish OBV divergence signal work on Indian stocks?
When “Bullish OBV divergence” appeared, NIFTY 200 stocks were higher 12 trading days later 58.1% of the time, against 55.3% after any day: a small edge. No single signal is reliable on its own; traders combine it with the trend and manage risk with a stop-loss.
How often did stocks rise after this signal?
Across 1,389 signals on 181 NIFTY 200 stocks (2021–2025), the price was higher after 5, 12 and 20 trading days 57.9%, 58.1%, 57.4% of the time. After any day it was 53.9%, 55.3%, 56.8%.
How is “Bullish OBV divergence” defined here?
The close is within 0.5% of its 45-day low while OBV is more than 20% of its 45-day range above its own low.
How these numbers were made
We ran the same signal detector MarketSeekho uses to grade players over every trading day of 187 NIFTY 200 stocks, Jan 2021 to Oct 2025, using NSE end-of-day prices (1,54,833 stock-days). We counted the first day a signal appeared, then ignored the same signal on the same stock for 12 trading days so results don’t overlap. Windows with splits, bonuses or trading halts were left out.
“Any day” is the baseline: the same measure after every day in the data, signal or not. It matters because 2021–2025 was mostly a rising market, so stocks were higher after 12 days more often than not anyway. Past results don’t predict future ones, and this is not investment advice.