Falling OBV: is selling pressure building?
A falling OBV means more volume is going into down days: sellers are active.
When “OBV falling” appeared, NIFTY 200 stocks were lower 12 trading days later 44.4% of the time, against 44.7% after any day: about the same as picking a random day.
| After | Higher | Average move | Median move | Higher after any day |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 trading days | 56.0% | +0.6% | +0.5% | 53.9% |
| 12 trading days | 55.6% | +1.1% | +0.8% | 55.3% |
| 20 trading days | 57.0% | +1.7% | +1.2% | 56.8% |
Year by year
| Year | Signals | Higher after 12 days | Any day |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 478 | 56.5% | 54.4% |
| 2022 | 1104 | 53.7% | 52.1% |
| 2023 | 996 | 61.8% | 61.3% |
| 2024 | 986 | 52.7% | 53.7% |
| 2025 | 624 | 53.0% | 53.1% |
| Large cap only | 2218 | 56.1% | |
| Mid cap only | 1970 | 55.1% |
What it is
A falling OBV means more volume is going into down days: sellers are active.
How we detected it
Over the last 15 days, OBV fell by more than 15% of its range over the last 45 days.
How traders read it
Falling OBV while price holds up can be an early warning. Falling OBV with falling price simply confirms the downtrend.
A signal is a probability, not a promise
Even the most reliable signal in this study was followed by the opposite move 37% of the time. A signal tilts the odds; it doesn’t decide the outcome.
Signals work better when they agree with the trend and with each other. Whatever the signal, decide your stop-loss before you act.
Practise spotting it, free
The OBV chapter teaches this signal in five minutes, then you call real NSE charts and get graded on your reasoning.
Common questions
Does the OBV falling signal work on Indian stocks?
When “OBV falling” appeared, NIFTY 200 stocks were lower 12 trading days later 44.4% of the time, against 44.7% after any day: about the same as picking a random day. No single signal is reliable on its own; traders combine it with the trend and manage risk with a stop-loss.
How often did stocks rise after this signal?
Across 4,188 signals on 185 NIFTY 200 stocks (2021–2025), the price was higher after 5, 12 and 20 trading days 56.0%, 55.6%, 57.0% of the time. After any day it was 53.9%, 55.3%, 56.8%.
How is “OBV falling” defined here?
Over the last 15 days, OBV fell by more than 15% of its range over the last 45 days.
How these numbers were made
We ran the same signal detector MarketSeekho uses to grade players over every trading day of 187 NIFTY 200 stocks, Jan 2021 to Oct 2025, using NSE end-of-day prices (1,54,833 stock-days). We counted the first day a signal appeared, then ignored the same signal on the same stock for 12 trading days so results don’t overlap. Windows with splits, bonuses or trading halts were left out.
“Any day” is the baseline: the same measure after every day in the data, signal or not. It matters because 2021–2025 was mostly a rising market, so stocks were higher after 12 days more often than not anyway. Past results don’t predict future ones, and this is not investment advice.